In Britain, there are currently two crises. One, the claim that supermarket shelves are empty, is largely a mirage or lie spread by Remainers; the other, that petrol pumps are running dry, is real, but due primarily to panic-buying caused by doom-mongering reports. Yet, although neither is ‘real’, they both reflect a very-real crisis that is brewing, and has been for years, due to a decline in the number of HGV drivers. With fewer drivers, it is becoming difficult to ensure deliveries will arrive and, though the supermarket shelves may not be empty today and the pumps are mostly only dry because they have been drained by idiots, we could soon see both empty in the near future.
But, why?
It’s Brexit, innit?
It is no coincidence that the tales of empty shelves and the reports that petrol pumps would run dry were mostly spread by the BBC and, online, by Remainers. As well as taking delight in an imagined ‘we told you so’ situation, blaming the lack on Brexit was potent propaganda for those who would like to undo the referendum result. After all, if Brexit has left us in a mess, surely we should petition the EU to let us back in?
Except, of course, that the lack of HGV drivers has very little to do with Brexit.
There is no one reason for the lack of drivers, so, just as Brexit cannot be claimed as the sole cause, Brexit cannot be entirely exonerated from playing a role. However, especially given that the problem has been growing for years, most of which were whilst the UK was in the EU, Brexit cannot be the primary cause. Indeed, the lack is one that affects Europe as well…
The Expulsion Myth
One claim that pops up repeatedly in Remainer myth-making is that the lack of drivers is due to Britain having ‘expelled’ European HGV drivers. This is easily demolished by the fact that there was no mass expulsion of Europeans following Brexit. All Europeans who were living in the UK were entitled to apply for Settled Status. Thus, drivers who wished to continue working could do so.
It is estimated that around a third of European drivers left the UK following Brexit, for a total of around 12,000. This sounds like a lot, but when you consider that there are 100,000 less drivers available since the pandemic began, Britain would still be nearly 90,000 short even if they had all remained. Their absence doesn’t help, but can hardly be credited with being a major cause of any problems.
And, though we can say that those 12,000 left, we cannot say what their exact reasons were. Some, undoubtedly, will have been largely or entirely due to Brexit, if they thought applying for Settled Status was too much hassle or were turned down for some reason, or if they decided they didn’t feel welcome anymore. But, there had been a decline in East European drivers prior to Brexit as the stagnant pay and conditions in the UK were countered by increasing wages in their home countries – people who had come to Britain because they could earn more to send home found they could earn almost as much, if not the same or more, in their own countries, allowing them to spend more time with their families, and probably make more when you factored in lower living costs.
Then, of course, we have the pandemic, which may have caused some to decide to return home rather than risk being stuck in a different country to their families for who-knew-how-long. Probably, for many, it was a mix of factors.
Europe has problems, too
If you were to read a Remainer social media post on the issue, you’d likely see it claimed that Britain’s shelves are empty, whilst those in Europe are groaning with goods. Of course, if there are any empty supermarket shelves in the UK, it’s not a significant issue. But, the idea that Europe is replete with HGV drivers is actually a myth.
Yes, Europe is facing a shortage, too, of around 400,000 across the EU.
As the EU hasn’t left itself, and, indeed, has received a boost of some 12,000 drivers from the UK, I think it is safe to assume the shortage there has nothing to do with Brexit. So, why make the connection without evidence on this side of the Channel? Much the same problems afflict both the continent and Britain.
5000 Special Visas
The UK government has pledged to offer 5000 special visas to European drivers, although, given the total lack, this is really just a bandaid and a sop to shush critics.
However, claims by Remainers that this somehow proves Brexit was a failure or the government is making a u-turn on immigration shows that they still don’t understand the issues involved. No reasonable Leaver ever claimed that there would be no need for migrant workers or that Europeans should be banned from these shores, despite the feverish imaginations of certain Remainers. What people wanted was control over who could come to the UK and a level playing-field between Europeans and people from elsewhere in the world, especially the Commonwealth. Choosing to make more visas available and for a limited period doesn’t invalidate either of those concepts; in fact, it is an example of the first.
The One Good Remainer Argument
Although most Remainers’ claims have been nonsense, I did see one argument in the letters pages of the latest Private Eye that made a good point and demonstrated why it would have been so much better had Remainers and Leavers engaged in civilised dialogue rather than a slanging match.
The point was that many European countries restrict or prohibit deliveries by HGVs at weekends, whilst the UK does not. Thus, if they weren’t restricted by Brexit, we could have had them crossing the Channel to take up the slack at weekends.
Of course, this wouldn’t entirely alleviate the problems and a lack of casual HGV drivers from Europe isn’t a major cause of the current lack in the UK, and there would be those who might wish to follow the Europeans’ lead on restricting weekend deliveries, but it does show how, with the focus on fighting over Brexit, even now, the potential for creative answers has been ignored.
So, what are the reasons?
As Brexit is just one, and not a major, reason for the lack of drivers, what are? There are three main issues afflicting the sector, the interplay of which has caused the lack.
Age
With few new drivers entering the industry (see below), the age of drivers had been going up. This means that drivers are retiring due to their age or because they find the job too hard and aren’t being replaced.
Pay and Conditions
Pay for HGV drivers in the UK has stagnated for years, especially when you consider the ridiculously-long hours many work and the poor conditions (like having to sleep in their cabs). Once, the pay looked good compared to that in Eastern Europe, but, as noted, pay has increased there and European drivers have headed home rather than stay.
Given that it can be a tough job, the poor pay is hardly enticing for young people to enter the industry, meaning there aren’t new drivers joining as old ones depart, whether Europeans heading home or older drivers retiring. Without improvements, existing drivers will continue to quit and won’t be replaced.
Licences
Ironically, even if a young person wants to enter the world of the HGV driver, they will often find they can’t. The cost of becoming one is ridiculously high, especially when you consider the pay and conditions are hardly enticing. But, there is also a lack of test availability and a backlog of licences being issued. Even those who could be driving are often unable to because they just cannot qualify.
Other Reasons
Tax increases for some self-employed workers have made it less economical to be a driver and, then, we have the pandemic, which has caused disruption to deliveries and likely affected driver numbers.
The Global Angle
It’s not just the UK and EU that are suffering a lack of drivers. The USA is, too. Then, we have the disruption of shipping due to the pandemic and the blocking of the Suez Canal, and a global lack of shipping containers. Now, there is also talk of China cutting back on production in order to hit its targets in cutting pollution.
Training and recruiting more drivers would improve things, but even if the UK had a surfeit of drivers there would still be a risk of shortages if goods cannot get to Britain or there are no goods to deliver.
Britain is particularly vulnerable to shortages as it has allowed both its agricultural and industrial production to decline and is an island nation that requires goods to arrive via plane or ship. The malaise that has seen the UK become overly-reliant upon imports is the same malaise that has seen the lack of HGV drivers go untackled for so long. Ironically, given the way Remainers have seized upon the situation, it was those in power, who abdicated so much of their authority to the EU and sacrificed British productivity on the altar of European integration, who allowed this situation to form and fester.
Reforms
Will Boris Johnson grasp the nettle and carry out the major reforms needed to ensure that the current manufactured crisis doesn’t transform into a very-real one? Can he? Or, will he do as previous Prime Ministers have done and mouth a few platitudes and leave the mess for his successor to sort out?
Time will tell. But, perhaps, most of all, can the UK finally come together and face the necessary changes, or will people continue to bicker and fight whilst the country falters on the edge of the abyss?
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